India’s GDP growth will be 9.5 percent in 2021-22, IMF retains the position of the big economy: Big news for India.
The IMF has also said that India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy with a growth rate of 9.5 percent in this fiscal (Fy 2021-22) and 8.5 percent in the next financial year.
The economy will survive. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook put out GDP growth projections made in July for India, whose Covid-battered economy shrank by 7.3 percent in the previous fiscal.
In July, when India was in the grip of the second wave of Covid-19, the IMF cut its forecast from 12.5 percent in April to 3 percent, before the resurgence of the pandemic.
Haidt’s long-term forecast for India’s GDP growth in 2026 is 6.1 percent.
In the WEO tables, China followed India with 8 percent this year and 5.6 percent for next year – a decrease of 0.1 percent for both years from the forecast in July.
Britain came second this year with a growth of 6.8 percent, followed by France with 6.5 percent and the US with six percent.
The global economy is projected to grow by 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 – 0.1 percent lower than the July forecast for 2021.
“The downward revision for 2021 reflects a decline for advanced economies partly due to supply disruptions and for low-income developing countries, primarily due to worsening pandemic dynamics,” the WEO said.
IMF chief economic expert Gita Gopinath said in her proposal to the WEO, “Global recovery continues, but the momentum has weakened due to the pandemic.”
She said that the recorded global COVID-19 death toll due to the highly transmissible delta variant has approached 5 million and health risks abound.
The outbreak of the pandemic has been prolonged in critical links of global supply chains – more supply disruptions than expected, further fueling inflation in many countries.
She cautioned that overall, risks to economic prospects have increased and policy tradeoffs become more complex.